印度人為什麼如此熱愛黃金？
摘錄自：天下雜誌 經濟學人電子報 2013/1/3
2013-11-22 Web only 作者：經濟學人
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| 圖片來源：flickr.com/photos/priyamn/ |
印度人愛黃金。新娘會得到足以弄斷脖子的珠寶，農夫靠首飾攢錢，自大之人戴著有如指虎的大戒指，企業虧損的大亨向寺廟獻上黃金好獲得救贖。即使經濟學家和官員求他們別這麼做，印度人依舊大買黃金；2011年，印度的黃金進口量為全球之冠，佔全球年供應量五分之一，總計進口約1,000噸黃金，與瑞士央行金庫裡的黃金不相上下。為什麼印度人那麼愛黃金？
傳統可以解釋部分黃金的吸引力，但如此巨大的購買量是現代才有的現象；1982年時，印度僅消費了65噸黃金。1990年以前，印度完全禁止進口黃金，金條得靠走私，印度國內的價格也比國外高出約50％。典型買家為南印度的貧窮農夫，對他們來說，黃金是種古老的貨幣，而且可以在時機不佳之時用作借款抵押品。不過，去除規範促使黃金購買大幅成長；今日，有錢人、投資人和投機客都會買金條。過去，黃金得靠走私，當鋪拿黃金當抵押品；現在多數黃金是透過銀行合法進入印度，許多黃金抵押貸款並非出自黑市放款商，而是出自合法註冊的金融機構。
黃金買家其實作出了他們眼中的理性選擇。其一，他們認為正式金融系統對他們不利。只有三分之一印度人擁有銀行帳戶，實質報酬也非常差：物價上漲幅度比基礎利率和政府公債利率都要高。金融系統犧牲存款者，好讓揮霍無度的政府能以低成本借款。外國人買下許多印度股票之際，當地人已經當了好一陣賣家。選擇實在不多，黃金看起來也不是那麼差，而且在2002～2011年之間，價格還年年上漲。黃金受歡迎的第二個原因在於，黃金讓人得以跳過許多印度的傳奇級繁文縟節。在印度開設銀行帳戶如同身陷官僚地獄，反之，黃金四處可用，而且不用任何證明文件。此外，由於官方難以追蹤黃金，黃金是個積存財富、又不必繳稅的好方法。部分人士指出，過去十年中，黃金熱潮與政治貪汙大增亦步亦趨。
因此，對個人來說，黃金狂潮相當合理。但總和起來，那就成了場災難。進口金條嚴重傷害國際收支平衡，及至2013年3月，印度過去12個月的黃金進口額高達540億美元；同期的經常帳赤字高達GDP的4.8％，而且半數以上的赤字出自黃金。黃金也會讓存款流出正式金融系統，無法用於投資。因此，雖然印度的總體存款率相當高，也與亞洲的「老虎」經濟體相當，但半數存款現在都流向了實體資產，而且比例還不斷增高，彷彿印度碰上了時光倒流。解決方法就是讓更多人加入正式金融系統，提升利率以鼓勵存款也有幫助；然而，這兩種改革都需要時間。短期而言，印度政府在歷經夏季的貨幣動盪之後，決定改採更原始的手段，亦即提高稅率並實施黃金進口限額。目前此法似乎已經奏效，10月黃金進口額僅10～20億美元。但這可能會鼓勵走私；印度目前的黃金價格，已經比國際水準高出10％，表示其中已內含走私利潤。走私客也開始試驗打敗政府系統的新方式：11月19日，官方在一架飛往加爾各答的客機的洗手間內查獲24根金條，總值超過100萬美元。（黃維德譯）
©The Economist Newspaper Limited 2013
The Economist
The
Economist explains
Why do Indians
love gold?
By The Economist
From The Economist
Published: November 22, 2013
Nov 20th 2013, 23:50 by P.F. | MUMBAI
INDIANS adore gold. Newly wed brides are given enough jewellery to
break their necks. Peasants store their pitiful savings in trinkets. Wise-guys
sport rings like knuckle-dusters and tycoons with broken balance-sheets offer
gold at temples in return for redemption. Even as economists and officials beg
them not to, Indians splurge on the shiny stuff—in 2011 India imported more
gold than any other country—about 1,000 tonnes, or a fifth of global annual
supply. That is the same amount that sits in the central bank vaults of
Switzerland. Why do Indians love gold?
Although tradition explains part of gold's allure, such vast purchases
are a modern phenomenon. India consumed only 65 tonnes in 1982. Until 1990
imports were all but banned. Bullion had to be smuggled in and its price within
India was about 50% higher than outside it. The typical buyer was a poor farmer
in south India, for whom gold was an ancient currency and collateral to borrow
against in bad times. But deregulation has seen an explosion in gold purchases.
Today bullion is bought by rich people, serious investors and speculators. Once
crooks imported gold and pawn brokers made loans against it. Now most gold
coming into India enters legally through banks. Many loans made against gold
collateral are not from shifty money lenders but registered financial firms.
Gold buyers are being rational, in their own way. First, they think the
formal financial system is stacked against them. Only a third of Indians have
bank accounts. Real returns stink: consumer price inflation is higher than
benchmark interest rates and government bond yields. The financial system is
geared towards helping the profligate government borrow cheaply at the expense
of savers. While foreigners buy lots of Indian shares, locals have been sellers
for some time. Faced with few alternatives, gold doesn't look so bad,
especially given that its price rose every year between 2002 and 2011. The second
reason why gold is popular is that it allows you to bypass a lot of India's
legendary red tape. Opening a bank account in India is bureaucratic hell. Gold,
on the other hand, is widely accepted without any documentation. It is also a
fine way to store wealth without paying tax—along with property, it is the
asset class that the authorities struggle to track. Some reckon that the huge
boom in gold has closely tracked the boom in political corruption over the past
decade.
At the individual level, then, the gold craze makes sense. But in
aggregate it is a disaster for India. Imports of bullion impose a massive
strain on its balance of payments—amounting to $54 billion in the year to March
2013. India's current-account deficit reached an alarming 4.8% of GDP that
year, and just over half of the gap was due to gold. Gold also diverts savings
out of the formal financial system, where they can be harnessed for investment.
Thus while India's overall savings rate is high and on par with those of Asia's
"tiger" economies, half of those savings are now diverted into
physical assets. The ratio has been getting worse, as if India is moving back
in time. The solution is to make sure that more people have access to the
formal financial system. Raising interest rates to encourage savers would help,
too. Both reforms will take time, however. In the short term, following a
currency wobble over the summer, the government has resorted to a more
primitive response, hiking taxes and imposing quot as on gold imports. For now this
seems to have worked, with only $1-2 billion of gold being imported in October.
But in time it may encourage smuggling. The gold price in India is now 10%
above international levels, which suggests a premium for smuggling is being
built in. And bootleggers are experimenting with new ways to beat the system:
on November 19th 24 gold bars, worth more than $1m, were found stashed in the
toilet cubicle of a Jet Airways flight to Kolkata.
©The Economist Newspaper Limited 2013
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