網路影片取代電視 成家庭新寵
摘錄自：天下雜誌 經濟學人電子報 2013/1/17
2014-01-08 Web only 作者：經濟學人
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| 圖片來源：flickr.com/photos/korosirego/ |
YouTube 的8年歷史中最熱門的影片之一，內容是一名叫查理的嬰兒一直咬他哥哥的手指，那正是許多人心目中的網路趣味業餘影片，也反映了線上影片和電視之間的競爭。對電視來說，線上影片目前仍是個麻煩，但不是重大威脅；美國成人每天平均花4小時看電視，遠超過花在網路節目和網路影片的時間。
但在2014年，線上影片會成為更具影響力的文化力量。有許多因素導致電視加速移往網路；更快的寬頻讓觀賞線上影片更為容易，民眾會購買更多具備網路功能的「智慧型」電視，將原本主要靠筆電和平板呈現的內容帶進電視。新力、英特爾也會在2014年推出「OTT」服務，透過網路傳送電視節目。
線上影片越來越精緻，也不再只有短片。Netflix、亞馬遜等影片訂閱串流服務，亦開始投資自身的高品質「電視」節目，例如Netflix就重新翻拍政治劇《紙牌屋》，預估投資額為1億美元。
這改變了民眾收視的內容和方式，也帶來了文化衝擊。網路讓人認定，他們可以依照自己的要求取得娛樂。一口氣看完數集或整季的影集越來越常見；Netflix亦主動滿足客戶的需求，將整季新節目一次放上網路。
網路也改變了節目。從歷史來看，連續劇在直播電視上不易成功，因為觀眾得每周收看，可能會錯過部分細節；網路則會支持連續劇的發展，製作人和編劇也可以實驗節目形式和故事結構。未來會有更多群眾集資式的內容，讓觀眾投票決定要製作哪個節目。
就某方面來看，網路讓看電視變得更具社交性，因為許多人會在推特發表他們看的網路影片。但那也讓看電視變得更不社交，因為觀賞相同節目的人也變少了。全家或許還是會聚在客廳，但每個人看的是不同的螢幕；除了體育賽事直播和少數重要電視節目外，全國同時觀賞某個節目的時代即將告終。
家中的動態也會改變。2014年，更多「無線人」（放棄有線電視的年輕人）會成家，並選擇價格較低的線上影片服務和寬頻。2014年之後，還會有更多人放棄有線電視；電視觀賞習慣變動這部影集，得演上好幾季才會結束。（黃維德譯）
©The Economist Newspaper Limited 2014
The Economist
Culture
YourTube
By The Economist
From The Economist
Published: January 08, 2014
Nov 18th 2013 | From The World In 2014 print edition
The internet is changing television habits.
One of the most popular videos in YouTube's eight-year history, with
over 580m views, stars Charlie, a British baby, who repeatedly bites his older
brother's finger. It is the sort of amusing amateur clip people associate with
the internet, as well as an apt metaphor for the rivalry between online video
and television. To its more mature sibling, online video has so far been a
nuisance, but no great threat. The average American adult spends over four
hours a day watching television, and only a fraction of that watching
programmes and video clips on the internet.
But in 2014 online video will become a more influential cultural force,
changing conversations, communities and what people watch. Several factors will
speed up television's move to the internet. Faster broadband will make it
easier to watch videos delivered online without having to wait ages for them to
load. People will buy more internet-enabled "smart" television sets,
bringing websites once accessible mainly from laptops and tablets to bigger
screens. In 2014 firms such as Sony and Intel will launch "over the
top" services, which deliver television programmes over the internet.
Apple's long-awaited television offering may come to fruition.
Online video is getting slicker and less short-form. Video-subscription
services like Netflix and Amazon, which stream films and television shows
online, are investing in their own high-quality "TV" shows. Netflix,
for example, spent an estimated $100m to remake the political drama "House
of Cards". YouTube is trying to refashion itself into a direct competitor
to television, launching its own "channels" with professionally
produced shows. In 2014 some of the world's biggest creators of programmes,
including Disney, will start to make exclusive programmes for new platforms.
Binge viewing is becoming common
This change in what folk watch and how they watch it is already having
a cultural impact. The internet has made people expect that they can access
entertainment on their terms: if someone were to make a reality-television show
about media consumers today, it would be called, "Instant
Gratification". Binge viewing, in which square-eyed audiences (no longer
at the mercy of programmers' line-ups) watch multiple episodes or entire
seasons in single sittings, is becoming common. Netflix actively indulges
consumers' gluttony by putting whole seasons of its new shows online all at
once. More people will spend weekends without leaving the house, mesmerised by
their monitors.
The internet will also change programming. It will support the
development of more serialised dramas, which historically have had a harder
time succeeding on live television, when people tune in once a week and may
miss some of the story's subtleties. Producers and writers will experiment with
format and story structure. More content will be crowd-sourced, letting viewers
vote on which programmes get made, as they did with Amazon Studios' shows, some
of which start in 2014.
The rise of the cord-nevers
In some ways television-watching will become more social thanks to the
internet, with people tweeting about what they watch online. But it will also
become less so, since fewer people will watch the same shows in the company of
others. Families may still gather in the living room but they will be absorbed
by different screens, with adolescents watching programmes on their mobile
devices while parents gaze at the television. With the exception of live sports
and a few big television programmes, the era of nations tuning in to a weekly
show at the same time, and talking about it the next day, will wane—if not in
2014 then soon after. Colleagues will still discuss "Homeland" or
"Downton Abbey", but they are unlikely to have just seen the same
episode.
At home, meanwhile, the dynamics will shift too. In 2014 more
"cord-nevers" (youngsters forgoing cable) will start their own homes
and opt for a cheaper online-video service and broadband instead of
pay-television. These are not perfect replacements—with no live sports, for
example—but many cash-strapped younger folk, who do not care about tuning in at
prime time, will choose them. Beyond 2014, even more people will cut the cord.
This drama of changing television-viewing habits will play out over many
seasons.
©The Economist Newspaper Limited 2014
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