敘利亞還有和平的可能嗎？
摘錄自：天下雜誌 經濟學人電子報 2013/1/3
2013-12-30 Web only 作者：經濟學人
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| 圖片來源：flickr.com/photos/trocaire/ |
你支持的黨派失勢時，該怎麼辦？這正是敘利亞全國聯盟的西方支持者所面臨的問題。敘利亞全國聯盟自認為主要政治反對勢力的代表，亦擁有名為敘利亞自由軍的民兵聯盟。但在敘利亞，這些相對溫和的團體已逐漸不敵聖戰團體等其他派系，也讓美國和歐洲政府的處境十分尷尬。
聖戰團體勢力日益強大之際，部分西方官員悄悄地開始支持重新與阿薩德（Bashar Assad）接觸，其他人則認為，唯一的路線就是與反對極端主義、卻也不願加入聯盟的伊斯蘭團體合作。各方將於1月22日在日內瓦開始協商，但西方政府還是不確定該支持哪個軍事派系。
此問題最直接的原因，就是基地組織的敘利亞分支日益茁壯。這讓西方和部分敘利亞民眾相當緊張；部分民眾認為，極端分子比擁有伊朗和俄羅斯撐腰的阿薩德還要糟糕。目前掌有實權的非基地組織反對勢力，只剩下由7個強力伊斯蘭團體組成的伊斯蘭陣線。
但西方決策者不確定該如何與伊斯蘭陣線接軌。聯盟成員認為它太過保守且不夠民主，卻也試圖與它建立連結；美國外交人員一直與它保持接觸，但西方不太願意與它的戰士關係太過緊密，因為他們曾對敘利亞的阿拉維派發動殘酷攻擊。
伊蘭斯陣線取得靠近土耳其邊界的數個反抗軍基地和倉庫後，美國和英國官員亦確認敘利亞北部的非致命援助已然暫停，顯示其不安之情。現在，西方政府似乎比較在乎聖戰團體的威脅，而非逼退阿薩德政權。
誰會在日內瓦協商中代表反對勢力仍不明朗。俄羅斯建議應由非屬聯盟的團體代表；雖然俄羅斯和美國都會坐上談判桌，目前還是無法確定伊朗、以及支持伊斯蘭陣線的沙烏地阿拉伯會不會出席。要是它們沒出席，協商結果將難以實行。
至少100萬敘利亞難民進入黎巴嫩，讓黎巴嫩的情勢越來越緊繃。聯合國預期，及至明年底，敘利亞難民總數將超過400萬人；目前已有230萬敘利亞人逃往國外，更有650萬人在國內流離失所。聯合國已於本周著手募集65億美元的敘利亞援助資金。（黃維德譯）
©The Economist Newspaper Limited 2013
The Economist
War
and peace in Syria
Where are the
good guys?
By The Economist
From CommonWealth Magazine
Published: December 30, 2013
Dec 21st 2013 | BEIRUT AND CAIRO | From the print edition
The rise of jihadists and the worsening sectarian strife in Syria have
put Western backers of the rebel opposition in a quandary.
WHAT to do when the party you have been backing loses sway? That is the
question facing Western supporters of the Syrian National Coalition, the
umbrella group that claims to represent the main political opposition, and its
armed wing of loosely allied rebel militias, known as the Free Syrian Army.
Especially on the ground in Syria, these relatively moderate groups have been losing
out to other factions, particularly jihadist ones. As a result, the American
administration and European governments are in a bind.
As the jihadists grow in strength, some Western officials are starting
quietly to advocate re-engagement with Bashar Assad, Syria's president, while
others think the only course left is to work with devout Islamists who reject
the extremists but who nonetheless refuse to be part of the coalition hitherto
backed by the West. With negotiations supposed to start in Geneva on January
22nd, Western governments are still puzzling over which military factions to
back on the ground. "I'm not sure where we are," says a Western
diplomat involved in preparing for the conference.
The immediate cause of this mess is the growth of al-Qaeda affiliates
in Syria. The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (Greater Syria), known as ISIS,
the most ruthless of the groups, has spread across northern and eastern Syria,
while another al-Qaeda bunch, Jabhat al-Nusra, still thrives, too.
This has caused alarm in Western capitals and among Syrians who mutter
that the extremists may be even worse than a regime that has used fighter jets,
barrel-bombs and chemical warfare against civilians. With Russia and Iran
doggedly behind him, Mr Assad has stood firm.
That leaves only one non-al-Qaeda opposition lot with real power: a
newish clutch of seven beefy Islamist groups called the Islamic Front. This
includes Ahrar al-Sham, a large Salafist outfit, and the Army of Islam, a
collection of groups around the capital, Damascus. The front has distanced
itself from the military wing of the coalition, headed by Selim Idriss, a
defected brigadier, but also from ISIS.
But Western policymakers are unsure how to relate to the front.
Coalition members have denounced it as too conservative and undemocratic yet
have tried to foster links to it. American diplomats have been in touch with
it, but the West is generally wary of becoming too close to it because its
fighters have been guilty of brutal sectarian attacks on Alawite civilians in
Syria's coastal area, home to the Assads' sect.
The West signalled its unease on December 11th when American and
British officials confirmed that non-lethal aid to Syria's rebels in the north
had been frozen after the Islamic Front seized several rebel bases and
warehouses belonging to the coalition close to the Turkish border. Two days
before, Razan Zeitouneh, a secular lawyer who was prominent in peaceful
protests against the regime two years ago, was kidnapped from her office, possibly
by a group within the front.
Now Western governments seem more preoccupied with the jihadist threat
than with forcing out Mr Assad and his regime. Hence the notion, aired recently
by veteran American diplomats such as Ryan Crocker, that the least bad course
would now be to talk to Mr Assad, with whom the West has already been
co-operating over the removal of his chemical weapons.
It is not yet clear who, in any event, will represent Syria's
opposition at Geneva. The Russians suggest groups outside the coalition. While
they and the Americans will sit at the table, it is unclear whether Iran and
Saudi Arabia, which has funded the Islamic Front, will be there. Without them,
it will be harder to make a deal stick.
In a reminder of the wider peril generated by Syria's agony, a big
car-bomb exploded near Lebanon's border with Syria on December 17th, probably
aimed at Hizbullah, Lebanon's Shia militia that has thrown its weight behind Mr
Assad, widening Lebanon's own stark sectarian rifts. A massive influx of at
least 1m Syrian refugees, most of them destitute, is making Lebanon, with its
mixed populace of 4m, increasingly tense. Many are crammed into flats, some
sleep under bridges, others are packed into already crowded Palestinian refugee
camps or are scattered in tents across the bitterly cold Bekaa valley close to
the Syrian border. The UN reckons that the flood of Syrian refugees across the
region could exceed 4m by the end of next year. Already 2.3m have fled abroad
and 6.5m have been internally displaced. This week the UN began raising $6.5
billion in aid for Syria, its biggest-ever appeal.
©The Economist Newspaper Limited 2013
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