2014全球經濟 沒有悲觀的理由
摘錄自：天下雜誌 經濟學人電子報 2013/2/14
2014-02-11 Web only 作者：經濟學人
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| 圖片來源：flickr.com/photos/photographerglen/ |
2013年，在貨幣政策刺激和樂觀預期的魔力之下，全球重要股市皆大幅上升。而在過去一個月裡，魔力突然消失，全球股票市值減少超過30兆美元。不過，美國近期的經濟壞消息實在算不上是這波恐慌的合理理由。
股價總是有漲有跌，但最終仍是由背後的經濟決定。經濟學人評估現有證據後，認為投資人目前過於悲觀。幾個令人失望的數字不代表美國復甦陷於停滯；中國成長走緩，但突然重跌的機會仍低；其他新興市場的2014年成長確實會減緩，但它們並沒有朝著全面崩盤前行。
經濟學人抱持這樣的看法，最重要的因素在於美國經濟。全球復甦是由美國帶動，美國經濟長期不振自然代表全球經濟前景不佳；但此事不太可能成真，1月數據不佳的部分原因在於天氣極冷，進而打亂了經濟活動。股市下滑傷害了消費者信心，但投資人逃離風險亦促使公債殖利率下滑，應該會拉低房貸利率。財政政策也不像2013年那麼拖累經濟。由此觀之，美國2014年的成長可以維持在高於趨勢的3％左右。
許多投資人擔心中國經濟「硬著陸」，但比較有可能的情況，仍舊是走緩而非暴跌。中國政府有能力避免經濟崩潰，近期的援助方案亦顯示中國政府願意出手。
抱持樂觀的最後一個理由則是，市場下跌會讓歐洲和日本更有可能採取大膽的貨幣政策。歐元區通膨已低於0.8％，歐洲央行得放寬貨幣政策才行；若金融市場處於恐懼之中，歐洲央行就更有機會採行收購銀行放款等大膽行動。此邏輯更加適用於日本；日本股市跌幅最大，4月1日消費稅調升亦將衝擊經濟。
若經濟學人的分析正確，當前的市場悲觀氣氛應該只是暫時現象。一旦投資人認清全球經濟並未自由落體，他們應該就會恢復鎮定。經濟學人的分析遠優於市場所擔心的結果，但那實在算不上令人開心之事；全球復甦仍舊不夠健全，它太過倚賴美國，仍舊得面臨中國的風險，也依舊倚靠寬鬆貨幣政策。換言之，它還是走得搖搖晃晃。（黃維德譯）
©The Economist Newspaper Limited 2014
The Economist
The
global economy
The worldwide
wobble
By The Economist
From The Economist
Published: February 11, 2014
Feb 8th 2014 | From the print edition
The world economy will have a bumpy 2014. But the recovery is not, yet,
at risk.
FOR much of 2013 the world's big stockmarkets had a magical quality
about them. They soared upwards—America's S&P 500 index rose by 30% last
year, and Japan's Nikkei by 57%—buoyed by monetary stimulus and growing
optimism about global growth. Over the past month, the magic has abruptly worn off.
More than $3 trillion has been wiped off global share prices since the start of
January. The S&P 500 is down by almost 5%, the Nikkei by 14% and the MSCI
emerging-market index by almost 9%.
That investors should lock in some profits after such a remarkable
surge is hardly surprising (see article). American share prices, in particular,
were beginning to look too high: the S&P finished 2013 at a multiple of 25
times ten-year earnings, well above the historical average of 16. A few bits of
poor economic news of late are scarcely grounds for panic. It is hard to see a
compelling economic reason why one unexpectedly weak report on American
manufacturing, for instance, should push Japan's Nikkei down by more than 4% in
a day. Far easier to explain the market gyrations as a necessary correction.
From supercal…to fragilistic
Prices always jump around, but in the end they are determined by the
underlying economy. Here it would be a mistake to be too sanguine. Economists
are notoriously bad at predicting sudden turning-points in global growth. Even
if it goes no further, the dip in asset prices has hurt this year's growth
prospects, particularly in emerging markets, where credit conditions are
tighter and foreign capital less abundant. Tellingly, commodity prices are
slipping too. The price of iron ore fell by more than 8% in January.
On balance, however, this newspaper's assessment of the evidence to
date is that investors' gloom is overdone. A handful of disappointing numbers
does not mean that America's underlying recovery is stalling. China's economy
is slowing, but the odds of a sudden slump remain low. Although other emerging
markets will indeed grow more slowly in 2014, they are not heading for a broad
collapse. And the odds are rising that monetary policy in both Europe and Japan
is about to be eased further. Global growth will still probably exceed last
year's pace of 3% (on a purchasing-power parity basis). For now, this looks
more like a wobble than a tumble.
The outlook for America's economy is by far the most important reason
for this view. Since the United States is driving the global recovery,
sustained weakness there would mean that prospects for the world economy were
grim. But that does not seem likely. January's spate of feeble statistics—from
weak manufacturing orders to low car sales—can be explained, in part, by the
weather. America has had an unusually bitter winter, with punishing snowfall
and frigid temperatures. This has disrupted economic activity. It suggests that
all the figures for January, including the all-important employment figures,
which were due to be released on February 7th after The Economist went to
press, should be taken with a truckload of salt.
All the more so because there is no reason to expect a sudden spending
slump. The balance-sheets of American households are strong. The stockmarket
slide has dented consumer confidence, but investors' flight from risk has
pushed down yields on Treasury bonds, which in turn should lower mortgage
rates. Fiscal policy is far less of a drag than it was in 2013. All this still
points to solid, above-trend growth of around 3% in 2014. One reason this may
not excite investors is that it no longer implies an acceleration. America's
economy was roaring along at a 3.2% pace at the end of 2013. The first few
months of 2014 will be weaker than that, even though average growth for 2014
still looks likely to outpace last year's rate of 1.9%.
China's economy, for its part, is clearly slowing. The latest
purchasing managers' index suggests factory activity is at a six-month low. The
question is how far and how fast that slowdown goes. Many investors fear a
"hard landing". Their logic is that China has reached the limits of a
debt-fuelled and investment-led growth model; and that this kind of growth does
not just slow but ends in a financial bust. Hence the jitters on news that a
shadow-bank product had to be bailed out. Yet it remains more likely that
China's growth is slowing rather than slumping. The government has the capacity
to prevent a rout; and the recent bail-out suggests it is willing to use it.
If fears about a hard landing in China are exaggerated, then so are
worries about a broad emerging-market collapse. That is because the pace of
Chinese growth has a big direct impact on emerging economies as a whole.
Expectations for Chinese growth will also be a big influence on the desire of
foreigners to flee other emerging markets, and hence on how much financial
conditions in these countries tighten. After more than doubling interest rates,
Turkey's economy will be lucky to grow by 2% in 2014, compared with almost 4%
in 2013. But in most places less draconian rate hikes will merely dampen a
hoped-for acceleration in growth rather than prompt a rout.
The final, paradoxical, reason for guarded optimism is that the market
jitters make bolder monetary action more likely in Europe and Japan (see
article). With inflation in the euro area running at a worryingly low 0.8%, the
European Central Bank (which met on February 6th after we went to press) needs
to do more to loosen monetary conditions. Really bold action, such as buying
bundles of bank loans, is more likely when financial markets are in a funk.
That logic is even stronger in Japan, whose stockmarket has fallen furthest and
where the economy will be hit by a sharp rise in the consumption tax on April
1st. So more easing is on the cards.
Still in need of a spoonful of sugar
If this analysis is correct, the current market pessimism could prove
temporary. Investors should recover their nerve as they realise that the bottom
is not falling out of the world economy. Our prognosis is a lot better than the
outcome markets now fear. But it would not be much to get excited about. The
global recovery will be far from healthy: too reliant on America, still at risk
from China, and still dependent on the prop of easy monetary policy. In other
words, still awfully wobbly.
©The Economist Newspaper Limited 2014
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