年度風雲國家：烏拉圭
摘錄自：天下雜誌 經濟學人電子報 2013/12/27
2013-12-24 Web only 作者：經濟學人
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| 圖片來源：flickr.com/photos/29198100@N00/ |
如同往年，2013年有光榮也有災難。到了年終結算之時，成就和挫敗大多有如獨孤自大狂或聖人的產物，而非多數人類共同努力的結晶。為了讓天平從個體倒向集體、從悲嘆倒向歡欣，《經濟學人》首次決定提名一個年度風雲國家。
該如何選擇呢？如果將重點放在GDP成長，會讓我們選擇南蘇丹，其2013年的成長可能高達30％，但主要是由於去年南蘇丹脫離蘇丹，造成唯一的油管關閉，促使經濟衰退55％，而不是因為這個處境艱難的國家前景十分樂觀。又或許，我們可以選一個撐過經濟難關的國家：愛爾蘭堅強又冷靜地熬過了援助和支出裁減；愛沙尼亞擁有全歐盟最低水準的債務。但我們擔心，這種計量經濟手法會肯定那些最狠毒的諷刺，讓我們真的成為鐵石心腸的數字派。
另一個問題則是，應該要評估政府還是人民？以烏克蘭為例，烏克蘭有個惡棍總統雅努科維奇（Viktor Yanukovych），也有在基輔街頭為了民主而承受寒風的勇敢公民，即使9年前他們就經歷過革命、試圖讓同一個人下台。也別忘了土耳其，在那裡，數萬人發動示威對抗總理兼蘇丹埃爾多安（Recep Tayyip Erdogan）那可怕的獨裁政府和伊斯蘭主義。可惜，這兩股運動還沒有成功。
定義也是個問題。其中一個可能人選為索馬利蘭；索馬利蘭有效控制了海盜和伊斯蘭極端主義，但以多數定義來說，索馬利蘭根本不是個國家，只是索馬利亞的一個叛省──而索馬利亞一直難以控制海盜和伊斯蘭極端主義。除了尚未成為國家的名單外，我們也可以向即將解體的國家獻上祝賀：英國自1707年建立至今，總體表現不算太差，但要是蘇格蘭人在2014年有勇無謀地決定獨立，這個國家也會嚴重破裂。
其他出版品思考這類習題之時，通常會以個人影響力而非道德為主。因此，它們選出了普丁、霍梅尼（Ayatollah Khomeini），或是1938年的希特勒。要是像那樣考量現實政治，我們或許會選擇阿薩德的敘利亞，它讓數百萬身陷黑暗的難民四散於地中海東部各個寒冷無比的難民營。要是我們在乎的是人民平均影響力，可能會選擇位於東海、定期帶來第三次世界大戰威脅的釣魚台列嶼──但那可能暗示著釣魚台獨立，促使中國和日本進攻我們。
但我們認為，最值得表揚的成就應該是發生突破性改革，那不僅改善了單一國家，要是其他國家仿效，甚至對全世界都有益處。同志婚姻就是這種跨越國界的政策，不僅增加了人類總體的快樂程度，而且沒有財務成本。有幾個國家在2013年實施了同志婚姻──其中一個就是烏拉圭，而且烏拉圭讓大麻合法化，並立法規範生產、銷售和消費。如果其他國家跟進並將其他麻醉藥物包括在內，這類藥物為世界帶來的傷害將大幅減低。
更棒的是，烏拉圭總統穆希卡（José Mujica）非常謙遜。他有著政治人物極為少見的坦白，認為新法案是項實驗。他住在簡陋的小屋、自己開福斯金龜車上班，搭乘飛機時坐的是經濟艙；謙遜卻也大膽、風趣又自由，烏拉圭就是我們的年度風雲國家。（黃維德譯）
©The Economist Newspaper Limited 2013
The Economist
The Economist's country of the year
Earth's got
talent
By The Economist
From The Economist
Published: December 24, 2013
Dec 21st 2013 | From the print edition
Resilient Ireland, booming South Sudan, tumultuous Turkey: our country
of the year is…
HUMAN life isn't all bad, but it sometimes feels that way. Good news is
no news: the headlines mostly tell of strife and bail-outs, failure and folly.
Yet, like every year, 2013 has witnessed glory as well as calamity.
When the time comes for year-end accountings, both the accomplishments and the
cock-ups tend to be judged the offspring of lone egomaniacs or saints, rather
than the joint efforts that characterise most human endeavour. To redress the
balance from the individual to the collective, and from gloom to cheer, The
Economisthas decided, for the first time, to nominate a country of the year.
But how to choose it? Readers might expect our materialistic outlook to
point us to simple measures of economic performance, but they can be
misleading. Focusing on GDP growth would lead us to opt for South Sudan, which
will probably notch up a stonking 30% increase in 2013—more the consequence of
a 55% drop the previous year, caused by the closure of its only oil pipeline as
a result of its divorce from Sudan, than a reason for optimism about a troubled
land. Or we might choose a nation that has endured economic trials and lived to
tell the tale. Ireland has come through its bail-out and cuts with exemplary
fortitude and calm; Estonia has the lowest level of debt in the European Union.
But we worry that this econometric method would confirm the worst caricatures
of us as flint-hearted number-crunchers; and not every triumph shows up in a
country's balance of payments.
Another problem is whether to evaluate governments or their people. In
some cases their merits are inversely proportional: consider Ukraine, with its
thuggish president, Viktor Yanukovych, and its plucky citizens, freezing for
democracy in the streets of Kiev, even though nine years ago they went to the
trouble of having a revolution to keep the same man out of office. Or remember
Turkey, where tens of thousands protested against the creeping autocracy and
Islamism of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the prime minister-cum-sultan. Alas, neither
movement has yet been all that successful.
Definitional questions creep in, too. One possible candidate,
Somaliland, has kept both piracy and Islamic extremism at bay, yet on most
reckonings it is not a country at all, rather a renegade province of
Somalia—which has struggled to contain either. As well as countries yet to be,
we might celebrate one that could soon disintegrate: the United Kingdom, which
hasn't fared too badly, all things considered, since coming into being in 1707,
but could fracture in 2014 should the Scots be foolhardy enough to vote for
secession.
And the winner is
When other publications conduct this sort of exercise, but for
individuals, they generally reward impact rather than virtue. Thus they end up
nominating the likes of Vladimir Putin, Ayatollah Khomeini or, in 1938, Adolf
Hitler. Adapting that realpolitikal rationale, we might choose Bashar Assad's
Syria, from which millions of benighted refugees have now been scattered to
freezing camps across the Levant. If we were swayed by influence per head of
population, we might plump for the Senkaku (or Diaoyu) islands, the clutch of
barren rocks in the East China Sea that have periodically threatened to incite
a third world war—though that might imply their independence, leading both
China and Japan to invade us. Alternatively, applying the Hippocratic principle
to statecraft, we might suggest a country from which no reports of harm or
excitement have emanated. Kiribati seems to have had a quiet year.
But the accomplishments that most deserve commendation, we think, are
path-breaking reforms that do not merely improve a single nation but, if
emulated, might benefit the world. Gay marriage is one such border-crossing
policy, which has increased the global sum of human happiness at no financial cost.
Several countries have implemented it in 2013—including Uruguay, which also,
uniquely, passed a law to legalise and regulate the production, sale and
consumption of cannabis. This is a change so obviously sensible, squeezing out
the crooks and allowing the authorities to concentrate on graver crimes, that
no other country has made it. If others followed suit, and other narcotics were
included, the damage such drugs wreak on the world would be drastically
reduced.
Better yet, the man at the top, President José Mujica, is admirably
self-effacing. With unusual frankness for a politician, he referred to the new
law as an experiment. He lives in a humble cottage, drives himself to work in a
Volkswagen Beetle and flies economy class. Modest yet bold, liberal and
fun-loving, Uruguay is our country of the year. ¡Felicitaciones!
©The Economist Newspaper Limited 2013
