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2014年7月6日 星期日

2014/7/6 「人生並非平等 贏家更容易成功」

人生並非平等 贏家更容易成功

摘錄自:天下雜誌 經濟學人電子報                        2014/7/4
2014-05-07Web only 作者:經濟學人

天下雜誌 經濟學人電子報 - 20140706
圖片來源:flickr.com/photos/8136496@N05/
「因為凡是有的,還要賜給他,使他豐足有餘;那沒有的,連他有的也將從他那裡被拿走。」聖馬太的話語常受人引用,只不過大多是精簡版本。但這個說法究竟是對是錯?紐約州立大學石溪分校的凡德萊(Arnout van de Rijt)團隊,最近發表一份研究報告,透過網際網路找出了答案。

凡德萊博士設計了一系列實驗,藉此觀察在初期隨機獲得優勢的人,是否最終可以創造更好的成果。實驗共計四項,分別在群眾集資網站Kickstarter、產品推薦網站epinions.com、維基百科、政治活動網站change.org上進行。

在Kickstarter網站上,凡德萊博士找出200個未獲資金的新計畫,然後隨機挑選其中半數的計畫,給予目標資金1%或10%的贊助。在epinions.com網站,編輯的收入,取決於對於編輯推薦內容的評價,凡德萊博士挑出305則尚未被評價的推薦內容,隨機挑出155則並給予最高評價。在維基百科的項目,通常最具生產力的維基百科編輯可以獲得獎項,因此凡德萊博士在521位排名前1%的編輯中,隨機選出208名編輯,並給予獎項。最後,他也在change.org上的200個新請願案中,隨機選出其中100個,然後幫這些請願案增加十幾位簽署人。

在四項測驗中,初期的助力全都發揮了顯著的效果。其中Kickstarter網站的效果最大,控制組(沒有獲得凡德萊博士資助的計畫)中,只有39%的計畫在24天內獲得一筆以上的贊助;反之,獲得種子資金計畫中,70%從其他來源獲得了一筆以上的贊助。

其他三項實驗的結果類似,只是效果較不明顯。如果獲得凡德萊博士的認可,epinion的編輯所撰寫的推薦內容在接下來14天內獲得最高評價的機會,從77%提升至90%;同樣的,如果先給予生產力較高的維基百科編輯獎項,編輯再度獲獎的機率會從31%提升至40%。在change.org項目,如果一開始先為請願案增加十幾個簽署人,那麼這項請願案額外獲得至少一位以上簽署人的機會,將會從52%升至66%。

前述增幅在統計上十分顯著,因此,凡德萊博士的研究至少同意聖馬太格言的前半段。不過,研究團隊也發現,初期助力的規模大小,與最後的成效無關;Kickstarter贊助額是目標金額的1%或是10%,對最後的結果並沒有影響,後續研究亦顯示,由4名不同贊助者各贊助1%,結果也沒有差別。

成功確實會孕育成功,但不具有壓倒性優勢。至於馬太格言的後半段、失敗是否會孕育失敗,就有待進一步實驗了。(黃維德編譯)

©The Economist Newspaper Limited 2014





2014年3月17日 星期一

2014/3/17 「自我感覺良好 是每個人的本性」

自我感覺良好 是每個人的本性

摘錄自:天下雜誌 經濟學人電子報                        2014/3/14
2014-03-13Web only 作者:經濟學人

天下雜誌 經濟學人電子報 - 20140317
圖片來源:flickr.com/photos/joshuacraig/
 認為自己在大部分個人特質上優於一般同儕,即為平均水準以上效應(BTAE)。此效應的強度受許多因素影響,但無數研究皆顯示,在每個人身上,BTAE一直都存在。

這可以是好事;高估自身能力、個人特質和前景,有助克服障礙、勇於面對困難任務、提升自信。但那也可能是壞事;例如,懶惰或自私之人若低估這些問題,自然不會有改善它們的動力。

但一般來說,BTAE應該會自我限制;如果你那高人一等的想法實在太誇張,不但其他人不會相信,連你自己都不會相信。BTAE在心理學上廣受引用,但某人的特定特質是否真的優於平均,通常無法明確又客觀地衡量──說不定那真的是出於理性而非自我提升。

南安普頓大學、皇家哈洛威學院和俄亥俄大學的研究者,試圖以一群相當具有負面個人特質的受訪者,證實BTAE的存在:受刑人。他們訪問了85名南英格蘭的囚犯,其中至少2/3因搶劫或暴力犯罪入獄;受訪囚犯得評估自己與一般囚犯、一般非囚犯社群成員在9項特質上的優劣之分。

毫無意外,囚犯認為自己的各項特質都優於一般受刑人;他們認為自己更具道德、更有信用、更誠實、更可倚賴、更有同理心、更慷慨、更守法、更具自制力、更親切。重要的是,他們認為自己有8項特質優於非囚犯社群成員;唯一的例外為「守法」,不過,他們還是認為自己的守法程度合於平均。

對研究者來說,此結果顯示BTAE是自我提升而非理性的自我評估,其中最重要的就是,囚犯認定自己在守法和誠實這兩項特質上不輸一般社群成員(兩者間的重大差異,實際上已提供了客觀標準)。

不過,此研究還帶出了更大的問題。囚犯是在否認他們犯下的罪行?還是將罪行的嚴重性和非道德程度最小化?亦或是,他們完全誤解了「守法」的意義?無論如何,這項研究有助解釋,為何過去的研究顯示,囚犯總是低估自己出獄後再次犯罪的可能性;即使因違法而身處牢獄,在他們心中,他們已經是守法的公民了。(黃維德譯)

©The Economist Newspaper Limited 2014



The Economist

Social psychology
Anything you can do...

By The Economist
From The Economist
Published: March 13, 2014

Mar 11th 2014, 11:45 by P.H. | LAKE WOBEGON

 …I CAN do better. Because Babbage is, well, better than average. More moral, trustworthy, honest, dependable, compassionate, generous, law-abiding, self-controlled and kinder to others. His children are above average too, just like every child in Lake Wobegon (from where he is writing this above-average article).

Call it the better-than-average effect, or BTAE. The fact that people consistently judge themselves superior to an average peer on most personality traits is one of the cornerstones of social and personal psychology. The extent of the effect is influenced by a number of factors (such as whether an individual is judging her strengths or weaknesses, or comparing herself to a specific rather than average peer), but numerous studies have shown the underlying BTAE to be highly consistent.

This can be a good thing. Overrating their abilities, personality traits and prospects can help people overcome obstacles, persevere at difficult tasks and feel better about themselves. It can also be a bad thing: those who are, say, lazy or selfish but underestimate the extent of these problems will not be motivated to improve.

In general, however, it has been assumed that the BTAE is self-limiting: if an individual's claims of superiority are too outlandish, nobody will believe them—including the individual themselves. Believing that I can do a little better than my team's average of an eight-minute mile may motivate me to improve my time. Believing that I can run twice as fast as the average is simply setting myself up for failure. Reality can only be distorted so far before it snaps.

Although the BTAE is widely cited in psychology literature, it is not usually measured against an objective standard. So whether or not people actually are better than average in terms of a particular trait cannot generally be judged unequivocally—perhaps their claim actually is rational rather than self-enhancement? A new study published in the British Journal of Social Psychology seeks to address this by demonstrating the existence of the BTAE in a group of people whose personality traits are too irrefutably negative to convincingly prove otherwise: convicted prisoners.

Researchers from the University of Southampton, the University of London's Royal Holloway college, and Ohio University interviewed 85 prisoners at a jail in the south of England, at least two-thirds of whom had been convicted of robberies or violent crimes (some did not disclose their offence). All were asked to assess how they compared with both the average fellow prisoner and the average member of the (non-prison) community in terms of the nine traits listed above in the first paragraph.

Unsurprisingly, the prisoners rated themselves better than the average inmate on every trait: they considered themselves more moral, trustworthy, honest, dependable, compassionate, generous, law-abiding, self-controlled, and kinder to others. Remarkably, they also rated themselves better than the average member of the non-prison community on eight out of the nine traits. The exception was "law-abidingness", where, although they did not rate themselves above average, they rated themselves as equally law-abiding—perhaps the study's most surprising finding, given that they were behind bars.

For the researchers, the results offered evidence that the BTAE is measuring self-enhancement rather than a rational (or even partly rational) self-assessment, particularly given their findings on prisoners' law-abidingness and honesty in comparison to the broader community (the stark difference between the two communities effectively offers an objective standard).

But the research also raises broader questions. Are prisoners in denial about their crimes, or do they minimize the severity or immorality of what they have done? Or is it simply that they are unaware of the nature of their behaviour—that they simply misunderstand the meaning of "law-abiding"? Regardless, the findings offer some insight into why previous research has shown that prisoners consistently underestimate the likelihood that they will offend again when released; in their minds, they are already law-abiding citizens despite their incarceration for precisely the opposite behaviour.

©The Economist Newspaper Limited 2014