顯示具有 委內瑞拉 標籤的文章。 顯示所有文章
顯示具有 委內瑞拉 標籤的文章。 顯示所有文章

2014年10月26日 星期日

2014/10/26 「油價狂跌背後:原油、權力、陰謀」

油價狂跌背後:原油、權力、陰謀

摘錄自:天下雜誌每日報電子報                        2014/10/23
2014-10-22 Web only  作者:德國之聲

天下雜誌每日報電子報 - 20141026
圖片來源:德國之聲
過去幾個月油價一路爆跌,這輪動蕩尤其讓俄羅斯、伊朗和委內瑞拉這些原油出口國受到損失。種種「陰謀論」四起,對油價暴跌的原因出現了各種猜測…。
 
如果說世界上存在一種具有戰略性意義的原料,那麽非原油莫屬。

這種資源曾是戰爭爆發、或政府被推翻的導火線。通常來說,原油價格會十分敏感地對各種干擾作出反應。不過長期以來,被認為近乎是自然法則的事情,現在看起來卻行不通了:油價在過去數月下跌的幅度超過20%——儘管在一些重要的主要原油生産國出現了嚴重的危機,俄羅斯捲在烏克蘭危機中、「伊斯蘭國」的極端分子在伊拉克活躍、奈及利亞遭受伊波拉病毒的侵襲。

對俄羅斯來說,低油價比西方國家制裁更痛

德意志銀行研究院10月中旬發佈了一項調查,這份調查研究方向是,低油價對主要原油生產國會産生何種影響?石油産國需要什麽樣的價格才能夠平衡國家預算?

比如俄羅斯,該國至少45%的年收入要依賴能源出口。根據德意志銀行公佈的資料,俄羅斯需要每桶100美元的價格來平衡其預算,但目前的價格明顯要低於這個價位,約為85美元。

德國外交理事會高級研究員邁斯特(Stefan Meister)認爲,這會造成嚴重的後果:「俄羅斯的預算資金不足。在西方國家制裁和俄羅斯經濟零增長的背景下,這尤其糟糕。」這位俄羅斯專家接受《德國之聲》採訪時還表示:原油價格過低,給俄羅斯帶來的傷痛要比西方的制裁措施要多。

各種陰謀論也油然而生。一些俄羅斯人感到,上個世紀1980年代的一幕或許正在再一次上演:當時油價暴跌——這也是導致蘇聯解體的一個原因。俄羅斯安全委員會秘書帕圖申夫(Nikolai Patrushev)最近接受政府媒體採訪時表示,爲了讓蘇聯破産,美國30年前故意讓油價下跌。

俄羅斯戰略研究所(RISS)同在10月中旬發佈的一份報告表示:現在油價下跌,是因爲美國和沙烏地阿拉伯達成共識。

事實上,目前爲止沒有任何跡象能夠看到沙烏地阿拉伯要用「減産」來穩定石油價格。恰恰相反,沙烏地阿拉伯9月份還稍微提高了産量。同時,沙烏地阿拉伯拒絕了委內瑞拉向石油輸出國組織(OPEC)遞交希望召開特別會議的要求,因此,在11月末舉行常規會議的時候才能進行商討。

沙烏地阿拉伯國需要每桶99美元的油價才能平衡預算,雖然原油的低價也給該國帶來影響,不過沙烏地阿拉伯在過去數年積累了大約4500億美元的儲備資金,尚有喘息的空間。

伊朗不同,就是需要「石油美元」

德國科學與政治基金會的柯爾斯滕·韋斯特法爾(Kirsten Westphal)表示,至於石油産國伊朗的情形卻大不相同:該國迫切需要原油收入。

德黑蘭緊緊抓住希望不放,抱著這次價格下跌可能只是暫時性的念頭,不過因爲遭到西方的制裁,2011年以來伊朗的石油收入就減少了超過一半。原油的高價限制了伊朗在核武談判上的周旋空間。該國需要每桶125美元的價格才能夠平衡預算。對伊朗石油部長贊加(Bijan Zanganeh)來說,沙烏地阿拉伯對油價下跌應該負直接責任:全球原油市場,鋪天蓋地都是沙烏地阿拉伯的油。10月12日,伊朗伊斯蘭共和國對外廣播電視台的報導稱,伊朗已經把油價下調到與沙烏地阿拉伯同步。

委內瑞拉也充滿壓力,這可能是美國華盛頓官方樂於見到的。委內瑞拉甚至需要每桶162美元的價格才能滿足其財政支出。

不過,石油生產國——美國本身也依賴高油價。油價處於高水準,從油頁岩或是油砂中提煉出的原油,才有利潤可賺。

(本文轉載自「德國之聲」網站,不代表本社立場。)



2014年1月5日 星期日

2014/1/5 「音樂與政治 該不該劃清界線?」

音樂與政治 該不該劃清界線?

摘錄自:天下雜誌 經濟學人電子報                        2013/1/3
2013-12-31 Web only 作者:經濟學人
 
天下雜誌 經濟學人電子報 - 20140105
圖片來源:flickr.com/photos/34316967@N04/


委內瑞拉國會最近賦予總統馬杜拉(Nicolás Maduro)巨大的新權力,讓他有權制定法律。許多人視之為攫取權力,其中一名反對者、委內瑞拉的鋼琴家蒙泰羅(Gabriela Montero),貼出了一段影片,以小調演奏委內瑞拉的國歌。

蒙泰羅稱她的音樂示威為「垂死國歌」,她的演奏即緩慢又悲傷,也確實讓人想起葬禮進行曲。她告訴《經濟學人》,「委內瑞拉正在步向死亡!我們在虛無之洞裡越跌越深,身為藝術家,你不可以置身事外。」

在一般人心目中,搖滾樂手應該要有反叛精神。而對古曲樂音樂家來說,代價通常會更高一些;他們大多是在由國家資助或補助的樂團工作,因此他們多半被視為當權者的延伸,若是在不民主或極權國家,情況就更為嚴峻。

匈牙利作曲家費雪(Ivan Fischer)認為,「藝術家不該干涉日常政治,但我們有責任說出我們對潛在社會發展力量的看法。我們是獨立的,而且擁有一定的能見度。」費雪創立了知名的布達佩斯節慶管弦樂團,也越來越明白地反對匈牙利的極右傾向。

不少古典樂藝術家表示,他們只想表演音樂,而且他們沒有表達政治意見的義務。俄羅斯首席女高音奈瑞貝科(Anna Netrebko)最近表示,藝術家不該「干涉政治」。

俄羅斯知名鋼琴家兼作曲家阿胥肯納吉(Vladimir Ashkenazy)指出,在前蘇聯時代,任何型式的示威都有可能毀掉音樂家的生涯,「巴倫波因(以色列─阿根廷鋼琴家兼作曲家,常公開反對以色列佔領巴勒斯坦國土)想說什麼就說什麼,就算是在以色列之內也是如此,因為以色列是個民主國家。但在蘇聯,情況就非常不同。」

那麼多音樂家認為自己只是藝術家,這點讓蒙泰羅十分遺憾,她強調,「如果藝術家在乎的是真與美,那麼在有人奪走了真與美之時,我們就該有所反應。」她以拒絕公開反對馬杜羅和已故查維茲(Hugo Chavez)的委內瑞拉知名作曲家杜達美(Gustavo Dudamel)為例,「他說他想將心力放在(音樂教育計畫)El Sistema,但如果我們沒有了國家,當然也不會有El Sistema。」(黃維德譯)

©The Economist Newspaper Limited 2013



The Economist

Musical politics
Artists v autocrats

By The Economist
From The Economist
Published: December 31, 2013

Dec 29th 2013, 19:04 by E.H.B.

VENEZUELA'S parliament recently granted President Nicolás Madurovast new powerswhich enable him to rule by decree. In protest against what many see as a power grab, Gabriela Montero, a Venezuelan pianist (pictured), has posted a videoof herself playing the country's national anthem in a minor key.

Ms Montero called her musical protest "Himno Moribundo"—The Dying Anthem. Her performance does indeed resemble a funeral march, slow and grim. "Venezuela is dying!" she tells The Economist. "We're falling deeper and deeper into a hole of nothingness. And as an artist, you can't isolate yourself from that." Reacting to several events in Venezuela she sees as unjust, such as Mr Maduro's "fraudulent" victory to become president, Ms Montero has recorded various protest versions of the national anthem. Venezuela's authorities have since prevented her from re-entering the country, Ms Montero says.

Rock'n'roll artists are expected to affect a rebellious pose. For classical musicians the stakes are often a little higher. Their jobs tend to be at state-backed orchestras or subsidised symphonies, rendering them extensions of the establishment. In undemocratic or authoritarian countries, the situation is even more dicey. Yet several classical artists have memorably ruffled feathers. Consider Wilhelm Furtwängler, a leading German conductor in the early 20th century, who defended Jewish musicians in a 1933 letter to Joseph Goebbels. Or Mstislav Rostropovich, a Russian cellist, who publicly denounced the Soviet Union's human-rights record and even sheltered Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn, a dissident writer. Yet Goebbels forced Furtwängler into submission, and the conductor's subsequent failure to publicly protest against the Nazi regime's crimes damaged his post-war reputation. Rostropovich was punished with a travel ban.

"Artists shouldn't interfere with day-to-day politics, but we have a responsibility to say what we think about the underlying forces that develop society in one way or another," argues Ivan Fischer, a Hungarian conductor. "We're independent and have a certain visibility." Mr Fischer, who founded and leads the respected Budapest Festival Orchestra, has taken an increasingly vocal stand against his country's far-right tendencies, often speaking at events in support of Roma and other minorities. "Of course our situation is much less dramatic than in dictatorships, but my decision is to stay in Hungary and perform for Hungarians even though there are many things I don't agree with," he explains. "The popularity of the [far-right] Jobbik partyis something we have to warn people about." In his new opera, "The Red Heifer", which is based on a 19th-century blood libel case where several Jews were accused of ritually sacrificing a Hungarian girl, Mr Fischer tackles politics in a musical fashion. "There's a long tradition of political messages in operas, going back to 'The Marriage of Figaro'," he notes. Nationalists in turn have denounced Mr Fischer as anti-Hungarian.

Not a few classical artists say that they simply want to perform music and have no duty to opine on politics. Recently Anna Netrebko, a Russian primadonna, said that artists shouldn't "meddle in politics". And for Valery Gergiev, a Russian conductor, good relations with the Kremlin have brought stability and, by extension, musical excellence to his Mariinsky Theatre in St Petersburg.

Vladimir Ashkenazy, a famous Russian pianist and conductor, notes that in the former Soviet Union any form of protest could cost a musician his career. "Daniel [Barenboim, an Israeli-Argentinean pianist and conductor who regularly speaks out against Israel's occupation of Palestinian territories] can say what he wants even inside Israel because it is a democratic country. But in the Soviet Union things were very different." And, he adds, "we must not forget that there was no possibility of international travel unless the government would allow you to do so. You were a prisoner in the country. I could play Beethoven and Chopin, sometimes even a short piece by Schönberg. I won international prizes. The government was happy with me. But of course you couldn't say what you wanted." The same conditions applied in Nazi Germany.

Ms Montero regrets that so many musicians opt for the we're-only-artists argument. "If we artists are the ones who care about truth and beauty, we have to react when it's being taken from us," she argues. She points to her compatriot Gustavo Dudamel, a famous conductor, who has declined to speak out against Maduro or the late Hugo Chavez. "He says he wants to focus on [the music-education programme] El Sistema, but if we don't have our country, we won't have El Sistema," she says.

©The Economist Newspaper Limited 2013