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2014年5月10日 星期六

2014/5/10 「中國掀起中產階級移民潮」

中國掀起中產階級移民潮

摘錄自:天下雜誌 經濟學人電子報                        2014/5/9
2014-04-28 Web only 作者:經濟學人

天下雜誌 經濟學人電子報 - 20140510
圖片來源:劉國泰
近年來,中國掀起有史以來最大規模的移民潮,這波移民潮並非為了爭取更多的政治自由,真正的目的是追求更好的生活品質。這些移民海外的中國人,捨棄了在中國的高薪工作,賣掉房價飆漲的不動產,將中國市場激烈的競爭拋諸腦後。他們不可能在其他國家找到更好的工作,但是那些國家或城市空氣更新鮮、水源更乾淨、社會安全網更完善、食物更安全,而且沒有一胎化政策。

但不是每位握有綠卡的中國人都希望離開中國。許多國際旅遊者只希望握有一張好用的護照,可以更方便地在不同國家進出。有些人只希望當中國經濟陷入困境或當警察拘捕時,能有一張得以緊急逃脫的護照。但有些人確實為了更好的生活而離開。不同於過去幾波的移民潮,這些人包括了擁有不錯成就的專業工作人員。事實上,離開中國對這些人的財務,沒有任何幫助。

過去10年,有將近100萬的中國人取得加拿大、或美國的永久居留權;每年有大約8萬名中國人取得美國永久居留權,幾乎是1980年代的5倍;2009到2012年間,澳洲每年有8萬名中國人移居澳洲,是澳洲境內最大的移民族群,超過英國人與印度人。

多數移居國外的中國人取得的是技術移民簽證、雇主擔保移民簽證、或是依親簽證。澳洲核發的商業技能移民簽證,中國人就佔了三分之二;過去兩年,在義大利取得長期居留權的中國人數量成長為兩倍,到2012年底已達到12萬人;去年,中國已是紐西蘭最大的新移民族群,大約有6,000人。

然而,如果是藍領階級,而且沒有財產,想要移民就會變得困難許多,你能選擇的目的地也相對少許多。此外,在某些國家,例如美國,即使你沒找到工作,也必須待在當地一段時間,才能取得居留權,也就是所謂的「移民監」。

不過,也有不少有錢人,沒那麼想離開中國,但希望保有選擇的空間。根據胡潤研究所最近所做的一項調查顯示,資產淨值達到1,600萬美元的富豪當中,有64%的人希望或已經永有綠卡,但並沒有打算永久移民。有某些人是為了做生意方便,也有不少人屬於「裸官」的親戚或家屬,「裸官」的意思就是指親屬大量移往海外的高官。面對近來習近平大刀闊斧改革光場貪污,這些人也不太可能回到中國,只能繼續留在海外。(吳凱琳編譯)

©The Economist Newspaper Limited 2014






2014年4月28日 星期一

2014/4/28 「你具備了成功需要的特質嗎?」

你具備了成功需要的特質嗎?

摘錄自:天下雜誌 經濟學人電子報                        2014/4/25
2014-04-17 Web only 作者:經濟學人

天下雜誌 經濟學人電子報 - 20140428 - 1
圖片來源:flickr.com/photos/evilerin/
 麥克阿朵(Megan McArdle)在《The Up Side of Down》中指出,想找出失敗的光明面,通常得放開直覺、忽視傳統看法、去做從來沒有人做過的事。美國人的祖先擁抱風險、寬待他人的失敗,進而建立了地球上最富庶的國家。

願意投資於風險極高的新創企業,幾乎就等於是美國人專有的特質。在此同時,美國破產法規十分寬容,讓創業的風險更易於承受,也縮短了失敗的苦痛。這都是一個願意投資未來的國家所具備的特質。

蔡美兒(Amy Chua,也就是虎媽)與她的丈夫魯本菲德(Jed Rubenfeld)都是耶魯的法律教授,他們在《The Triple Package》提出了三項讓某些族群得以在商業上極為成功的特質:深度內化的優越感、極度不安全感,以及堅定的衝動控制力,特別是在面對困難時拒絕放棄的能力。

移民大多擁有前述三項特質,但擁有這些特質的不是只有美國新移民,猶太人和摩門教家庭的平均收入一直是中位數收入的3~4倍。在這些族群身上,此三重文化特質帶來了動力、耐力,以及承受失敗重新開始的能力。

美國曾是同時具備這三重特質,深信自己擁有獨特的命運、深信自己是獲選之人,擁有清教徒的強大工作倫理,卻也在歐洲文化帝國主義面前顯得非常沒有安全感。最近數十年,不安全感和工作意願已然消失,只留下了自豪、自滿和自以為是。

美國能否恢復其三重氣魄?實在很難說,或許中國崛起可以像半世紀前的蘇聯一樣,再次激發美國。當然,這取決於美國是否願意有所犧牲,告訴千禧世代努力雖然痛苦、但也無法避免,告訴他們科學和數學真的很重要。那需要全國上下的全心奉獻才辦得到。

波伊西州立大學的社會心理學家瑞德(Heidi Reeder),在《Commit to Win》中,將奉獻定義為在心理上投資於某事,並決心不計一切成本投入。瑞德提出了奉獻的4個關鍵元素,也正是這4項元素讓夢想得以轉化為成就:朝目標前行帶來的益處,克服困難,投資時間、金錢與心力,以及檢視其他選項。這本書務實、充滿資訊且極為易讀,實在是難得的美好體驗。(黃維德編譯)

©The Economist Newspaper Limited 2014



Business advice

Sweet smell of success

Do you have what it takes?
Apr 12th 2014 | From the print edition

天下雜誌 經濟學人電子報 - 20140428 - 2


The Up Side of Down: Bouncing Back in Business and in Life. By Megan McArdle. Viking Adult; 299 pages; $27.95. Head of Zeus; £15. Buy from Amazon.com, Amazon.co.uk

The Triple Package: What Really Determines Success. By Amy Chua and Jed Rubenfeld. Penguin Press; 320 pages; $27.95. Bloomsbury; £18.99. Buy from Amazon.com, Amazon.co.uk

In this section
Sweet smell of success
Hops and dreams
Avon falling
Ghost of glory past
Brand old man

Reprints

Related topics
United States
Amazon
Megan McArdle

Commit to Win: How to Harness the Four Elements of Commitment to Reach Your Goals. By Heidi Reeder. Hudson Street Press; 256 pages; $25.95. Buy from Amazon.com, Amazon.co.uk

FAILURE, as a precursor for success, threads its way through each of these books. None more so than in Megan McArdle’s compelling account of her own misfortunes, as one employer after another folds beneath her and a personal relationship goes sour. Disaster piles on disaster, until the author (like the alcoholic who hits bottom) embraces failure as an opportunity to learn. From then on, every step forward brings fresh insights that build an armoury for future growth and success.

Getting the upside of down, notes the author (who used to work for The Economist), often means letting go of your instincts, ignoring conventional wisdom, and leaping for something no one has done before. America has a long history of doing this. As Ms McArdle explains, “We’re the descendants of failures who fled to these shores from their creditors, their failed farms, their disastrous love affairs.” Embracing risk and forgiving failure in others, they built the richest nation on earth.

The willingness to invest at the riskiest part of any new venture’s discounted-cashflow curve is almost uniquely American. Meanwhile, the forgiving nature of America’s Chapter 11 bankruptcy law has made the risk of doing so easier to take; the sting of failure less arduous to endure. These are signs of a country with more invested in the future than in the past.

In “The Triple Package”, Amy Chua (of “Tiger Mother” fame) and her husband, Jed Rubenfeld, both law professors at Yale, identify three traits that characterise racial, religious and ethnic groups that excel in business: a deeply internalised sense of superiority, deep feelings of insecurity and an unshakable capacity for impulse control, especially the ability to resist giving up in the face of hardship.

Immigrants tend to have all three attributes. But successful newcomers to America like Cuban exiles and Asian Indians are not the only ones to share such traits. Jewish and Mormon households have long earned three to four times the median income. In all such groups, this triple cultural package instils drive, the capacity to endure, to take a hit and to start all over again. They are also often outsiders.

America was once the quintessential triple-package nation, convinced of its own exceptional destiny, a chosen people with a strong Protestant work ethic and yet riddled with insecurity in the face of Europe’s cultural imperialism. In recent decades insecurity and the will to work have all but vanished. What is left is essentially the swagger, complacency and entitlement of a perverted sense of exceptionalism.

Can America recover its triple-package verve? Hard to say. Perhaps the rise of a Chinese colossus will yet stir the country the way Sputnik and the Soviet Union did half a century ago. That will depend, of course, on whether America has the stomach for sacrifice—for telling its “trophy generation” that sweating the hard stuff is painful but unavoidable; that science and mathematics really do matter. It will take huge commitments at all levels, from the Oval Office to the kitchen table.

Commitment is something Heidi Reeder, an award-wining social psychologist at Boise State University, has devoted much of her academic career to understanding. In “Commit to Win”, she defines commitment as being psychologically invested in something and determined to stay with it at all cost. Dr Reeder identifies four key elements of commitment that allow pipe-dreams to be turned into positive achievements: the benefits of working towards a goal, overcoming difficulties, investing time, money and effort, and examining alternative choices. Her book is delightfully practical as well as informative, packed with intelligence and clarity of both thought and expression. Learned, yet eminently accessible, it is a rare pleasure.

From the print edition: Business books quarterly