三星高成長期真的結束了？
摘錄自：天下雜誌 經濟學人電子報 2013/1/31
2014-01-16 Web only 作者：經濟學人
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| 圖片來源：flickr.com/photos/nanpalmero/ |
在1月6日的拉斯維加斯消費電子大展上，《變形金鋼》的導演麥可貝（Michael Bay）本來要頌揚三星的新款105吋曲面螢幕電視，可惜的是，自動提詞機故障了，麥可貝也說不出話，只能就這樣走下台。隔天，製作行動裝置、消費性電子產品、半導體和顯示面板的三星電子，承認2013年第四季的表現遠不如分析師預期。
三星電子第四季的營運利潤2年多來首度下滑，降至約8.3兆韓元，比第三季低了18％；分析師原本預期為10兆韓元以上。營收約為59兆韓元，與第三季持平。
不過，三星電子與自動提詞機不同，它並沒有故障。完整季報將於本月稍晚出爐，三星也沒有提供更多細節，但利潤下滑可能主要出於暫時性因素。三星電子可能發出了高達8,000億韓元的員工特別紅利，研究公司Sanford C. Bernstein的紐曼（Mark Newman）亦指出，韓元升值至4年高檔（貿易加權），可能也讓利潤減少了7,000億韓元。
紐曼亦補充道，三星電子在第二、三季出貨的裝置高出營運者的轉銷能力，讓營運者的庫存高於平常，因此三星在第四季的出貨量可能會減少。但以整年來看，三星的出貨量成長5成，更在高價市場搶走了蘋果的市佔率。
比較令人擔心的是，三星開始發現行動裝置的市場越來越困難。研究公司IDC預期，2013～2017年間，智慧型手機出貨量年成長為18.4％；不過，成長最快的是低價手機，這方面的競爭越來越激烈，也讓利潤日益微薄。IDC預估，平均價格每年將下滑7.3％。不過，三星擁有各種不同價位的手機，應不致處於不利地位。
事實上，廣度正是三星在消費電子大展上的主軸。三星除了大尺寸電視外，還展示了新的平板電腦、洗衣機等產品，以及名為智慧家庭的平台，讓人可以在家中或外地控制各種電器。連線家庭一直是科技專家的夢想，電子產業也即將確知到底有多少人想要連線電庭。麥可貝或許無話可說，但三星並不缺想法──也不缺錢。（黃維德譯）
©The Economist Newspaper Limited 2014
The Economist
Samsung
Fluffed lines
By The Economist
From The Economist
Published: January 16, 2014
Jan 11th 2014 | From the print edition
The South Korean giant has a lousy start to the new year.
THE last 51 weeks of 2014 will be better than the first one. Or so
Samsung's bosses will hope after two toe-curlers in as many days. On January
6th, at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES), a trade fair in Las Vegas, Michael
Bay, director of the "Transformer" films, was due to extol a new
Samsung television with a 105-inch curved screen. Alas, the autocue froze—as
did Mr Bay, who walked off the stage. The next day Samsung Electronics, the
part of the South Korean conglomerate that makes mobile devices, consumer
electronics, semiconductors and display panels, admitted that in the last
quarter of 2013 it had fallen far short of analysts' forecasts.
Samsung Electronics' operating profit in the fourth quarter fell for
the first time in more than two years, to about 8.3 trillion won ($7.8
billion), 18% less than in the third. Analysts had hoped for 10 trillion won or
more. Revenue was around 59 trillion won, flat from the third quarter. Rumours
of a miss had already cropped 9% from the share price since December 23rd.
Unlike the autocue, Samsung Electronics has not gone phut. The full
results are due later this month, and the company is giving no more details
yet, but most of the shortfall can probably be ascribed to temporary factors.
Samsung Electronics has handed maybe 800 billion won to its staff in a special
bonus. Mark Newman of Sanford C. Bernstein, a research firm, reckons that the
strength of the won, which is at a four-year (trade-weighted) high, accounts
for another 700 billion won.
Mr Newman adds that in the second and third quarters Samsung
Electronics—which sells more smartphones than anyone else—shipped more devices
than operators could shift, leaving them with bigger inventories than usual. So
Samsung probably shipped fewer to them in the fourth quarter. But over the
whole year, shipments grew by half and Samsung won market share from Apple at
the pricier end of the market. "Operating profits were up substantially,
too," Mr Newman says; "just the timing was different."
A more niggling worry is that the company is starting to find the
market for mobile devices harder work. IDC, another research firm, expects smartphone
shipments to grow by 18.4% a year between 2013 and 2017. That sounds dandy for
Samsung, but the fastest growth is in cheaper phones, where competition is
getting fiercer and margins thinner. Dozens of Chinese companies are making
cheap devices that are improving all the time. IDC predicts that average prices
will fall by 7.3% a year.
However, given Samsung's sheer scale and the range of its phones at all
prices, it is probably as well placed as anybody. Analysts at Nomura, a bank,
point out that although cheaper smartphones command lower margins than dearer
ones, they are at least more profitable than basic "builder's
phones". And the margins on Samsung's tablets (a faster-growing market
than smartphones) are rising.
Breadth was, in effect, Samsung's pitch at CES. As well as its
gargantuan TVs it showed off new tablets, washing machines and more—and a
platform called Smart Home, on which all manner of appliances could be
controlled from inside or outside the home. The connected home has been a
technologists' dream for years: the industry is about to find out how many
people want it in reality. Mr Bay may have been lost for words, but Samsung is
not lost for ideas—nor for money.
©The Economist Newspaper Limited 2014
